Bad Vibes

Washington seems mired in bad news and dysfunction even as the global situation deteriorates

I’m drafting this the morning of Friday, October 13th, which is particularly apt as the overall mood around DC seems pretty bad. The past week has brought a pretty regular dosing of bad news for pretty much all parties here - the absolutely horrific and unjustifiable attack by Hamas on innocent civilians in Israel leading to Israeli retaliation operations that will also result in large numbers of innocent civilian deaths - being far and away the worst news, but there have been other troublesome stories. Inflation continues to persist at higher levels than the Federal Reserve would like, President Biden’s polling numbers continue to look abjectly terrible and, the House of Representatives remains leaderless as Republicans continue to flail about looking for a new Speaker of the House.

All of this is against the backdrop of a variety of fairly important national security decisions needing to be made in the coming days and weeks. While it is unclear what role US military forces will play in the Israeli response to Hamas, the Biden administration has already signaled that it will request supplemental funding from Congress to pay for various weapons transfers and heightened O&M costs. The possibility of the conflict expanding into a more regional conflagration is also something officials will need to closely watch. Hamas’ main patron is Iran and it remains unclear if Israel will take steps to retaliate against Teheran. Similarly, Hamas’ sister organization Hezbollah may take steps to intervene, leading to Israel facing a two-front war and requiring a more aggressive US response. Now on the backburner here, but of critical importance for many of our European allies, aid for Ukraine continues to rundown as a minority faction of Congressional Republicans continues to block voting on a new package. There also remains significant conflict ongoing or winding down in the Caucuses (Armenia-Azerbaijan), western Africa (Mali and the rest of the Mahgreb), the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia/Sudan) and, while not a hot conflict, China continues its slow push to seize control of the South China Sea in contravention of international law.

Given all of this, the ongoing myopia of US political elites has to be of major concern for our allies. The White House is floundering with low poll numbers and various Democratic columnists calling for Biden to be primaried prior to 2024. The Senate remains unable to perform its basic Constitutional responsibilities, as over 300 military officials remain unconfirmed due to Senator Tommy Tuberville’s ongoing blockade of normally routine votes. And the House of Representatives has no Speaker. Oh, and the government runs out of money on November 14th, just over one month away. Congressional Democrats and Republican leadership have not even begun discussions about how to prevent another continuing resolution or a shutdown.

I don’t want to make it sound like I expect Congress and the White House to function easily and effectively. Democracy is messy and our system, replete with veto points and conflicting representations of the will of the electorate, almost always struggles to produce timely votes in the modern era. Since 1998, the government has only been funded on time twice and both of those circumstances involved unified control of government. However, things are generally getting worse. I’m not a Congressional historian, but I’m unaware of the Speaker position being vacant for a prolonged period at any point in the 20th century. Similarly, the ongoing escalation of abuse of Senatorial privilege and the filibuster has rendered the upper chamber increasingly useless at even core functions. In the White House, Biden has performed about as reasonably as one could expect, but his age and the deep polarization of the electorate limit his ability to wield any sort of bully pulpit and bring the country together. All in all, there are not a lot of good feelings right now in Washington and it’s unclear when or if any of those things will change.