August was the first month where I’ve failed to post on this substack in some time. I'm not going to offer any excuses, just apologize for the lack of attentiveness and commit to doing better going forward. I’ve got a few irons in the fire for other projects at the moment (a paper draft of how rising borrowing costs could result in reduced defense spending and finishing up a fiction novel I’ve been writing for most of the past couple years), so I’m in a pretty good writing groove and should be able to carry that over here. This entry will be a bit of catch-up - some thoughts on the end of FY 2023 and the prospects for a Congressional shutdown and some updates on books I’ve been reading. I’d like to have some time later this month to write a bit about what I’ve learned in the last year and a half shifting from a very management focused-role into someone overseeing what amounts to a start-up, as well as thinking about how elites in the United States do or do not influence social mores in positive ways (my rough position is that they do but in a very individualistic manner). Again, my apologies for the break and I look forward to writing more here soon.
FY 2023 is Ending and Congress has No Clue How to Fund FY 2024
Congress is coming up on the end of FY 2023 with all of its normal grace and sensibility. In the House, Speaker Kevin McCarthy is continuing his running negotiations with the House Republican caucus around whether to prioritize responsible governance or owning the libs. In the Senate, there appears to be bipartisan support for appropriations bills going through regular order, but the Senate’s muscle memory in that particular approach is fairly atrophied. All of this suggests that the next nineteen days will feature a wide variety of twists and turns before something is agreed to. My entirely unscientific read of the various <mostly free> DC newsletters is that the press seems to think a shutdown is likely. I actually am a bit more optimistic - McCarthy has so far proven adept at giving way where necessary while also avoiding really damaging scenarios, and there’s no reason to believe that pattern won’t be maintained here.
Given that, I’d expect we’ll see lots of negotiation around House approps bills and an eventual CR before he adopts whatever the HFC is pushing to get it through the floor. Then, when the Senate and White House inevitably smack that down with extreme prejudice, he’ll go to the HFC and tell them he tried, and put whatever face-saving climbdown he negotiates with Schumer on the floor. Hopefully this occurs prior to a shutdown, but it’s certainly possible McCarthy decides to go a week or two without government to prove to his right flank he’s with them. The broader fight over appropriations will almost certainly not be resolved until sometime after Thanksgiving.
Recent Reading
I’m going to just run through what I’ve finished since then using Goodreads to help prompt my memory…
Winter Gifts - Ben Aaronovich (Rivers of London series) - I picked this up while we were traveling on vacation and finished it before we got back to the US. Not the strongest book in the series, but still a lot of fun. Centering a story around Agent Reynolds was a nice device for fleshing her character out more and the magical mystery was appropriately interesting.
Wolf Hall & Bringing Up the Bodies - Hillary Mantel - These were great. Mantel really inhabits the mind of Thomas Cromwell and the historical attention to detail is fantastic. I haven’t read the third novel simply because I know his end and am not anxious to experience it in her vivid prose.
Pax: War & Peace in Rome’s Golden Age - Tom Holland - I have the Rest is History in my work commuting podcast rotation (with Empire and the Double Pivot soccer podcast). So reading Holland’s work was a natural when I found out it was coming out. Many, many years ago I read his ‘Rubicon’ and this was in a similar vein. Richly written and a great read.
What Abigail Did That Summer - Ben Aaronovich (Rivers of London series) - This was a lot of fun - focusing on Abigail, the young cousin of Peter Grant, the main protagonist of the primary storyline. Abigail gets into all sorts of trouble and the way they loop in the supporting figures from the major books was particularly good. If you enjoy the Rivers of London (and I feel like most people would), you’ll love this one.
To Rule the Waves: How the British Navy Shaped the Modern World - Arthur Herman - This was surprisingly readable for a really in-depth history of the Royal Navy. One of my ongoing interests is in better understanding the interplay between naval technology, financial market development, empire and the modern world and this book was enormously interesting in looking at all of those things.
The Dark Queens: The Bloody Rivalry that Forged the Medieval World - Shelley Puhak - This was a good read. An in-depth look into the queens that dominated the pre-Charlemagne Franks. The history covered a period I don’t really know well, so it was interesting to learn. My one complaint is that I felt the author tried a little bit too hard to justify Fredegund’s zeal for poisoning and assassination. I find it just easier to accept that much of human history is driven by ambitious ruthless people willing to do anything to get ahead (make of that what you will…).
Empire Incorporated: The Corporations That Built British Colonialism - Philip J. Stern - This was surprisingly readable for an extremely detailed history of the corporations, charters and patents that built the British Empire. Given my above comment about my historical interests, this was just a really fascinating read. I would definitely recommend it.
Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World - Jack Weatherford - A really good, well-written history of Genghis Khan and the Mongol empire writ large. Weatherford does a great job bringing to the fore all of the ways in which the Mongol empire foreshadowed many of the tenets of the modern world (religious tolerance, free trade, colonialism, etc.). It was easy to read and I’d definitely recommend it.